history in the making, yet again...

[katsaris]

Belarus moves.

But I'm much more pessimistic about this one than I was concerning Ukraine. NOT in the sense that I was pessimistic (and turned out right) about Kyrgyzstan -- the one in Kyrgyzstan was a mere power-play between parliamentarians/regional forces versus the central presidency of Akayev, rather than any drive towards democracy. That was first shown by the fact that the very first action taken after Akayev's de factor exile was the transfer of power to the parliament whose fraudulent election the protesters were supposedly protesting! It was later proven even more clearly by the support given by Kyrgyzstan to their fellow tyrants in Uzbekistan. (Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss.)

In Belarus the situation is different: I don't doubt the democratic beliefs of the protesters. It's just that the balance of power is against them much more strongly than it ever was in Ukraine. Even if the votes *had* been counted correctly, likely Lukashenko would still be the victor. And he controls the state apparatus even more strongly than Kuchma did back in Ukraine.

It's good that the opposition is atleast making a show of force. Or of weakness perhaps, but even a show of weakness is better than a show of indifference. The few can be made many, in good time, the weak strong. It's just that I'm pessimistic that it's gonna happen *now*.

--

And my other source of consternation: the possible reversal and near-nullification of the Orange Revolution of Ukraine this coming Sunday. Petty ambitions and infighting have divided the formerly united Yushchenko-Tymoshenko front, leaving *Yanukovych* likely to take the lead. Almost certainly not with enough of a majority to rule alone. But who knows what vile accomodations may take place...

--

Playing around with maps recently:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Continental_Orgs_Map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Regional_Organizations_Map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Alliances_expansive_Map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ECO_CDC_Map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:BSEC_Central_Asia_+_Japan_Map.png

The creations of boredom... oy.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

Even if the votes *had* been counted correctly, likely Lukashenko would still be the victor.

Based on some reports on how the voting was actually done, the election may not even have taken place. Some people said they did not see their balot dropped into the balot box. They had no idea what actually happened to it after having marked their choice. So yes, after counting the balots Lukashenko would have come out the victor, but I bet the number of balots counted were lower than the number of people voting.

[katsaris.livejournal.com]

It's actually a minor point one way or another. Lukashenko maintains a climate of intimidation and unfreedom throughout the country. Even if the *election day* itself had been an image of democratic perfection, that would still not have made the election process *as a whole* free or fair, when the opposition barely (or not at all) had the opportunity to speak freely and make its argument all the previous years.

[(Anonymous)]

Should clarify...apparently people handed their balots to someone else who would then place that balot into a box.

[evilstorm.livejournal.com]

You make me feel sad and lazy because I haven't done anything for Wiki in ages. Heck, I've not done anything good at all.